There are two kinds of randomness, one that is harmless and one that can hurt.
Knowing which one your investments contain is important.
Alternative Title: How to Avoid Bad Manager Timing
Strategy Risk: If you own a black-box ‘go-anywhere’ hedge fund that invests long and short, uses futures and derivatives at any frequencies, you are mostly exposed to the strategy risk.
Asset Risk: On the other hand, if you buy and hold S&P500 for the long-run, you are mostly exposed to the underlying asset risk.
Volatility is how much something moves up and down. The stock market is more volatile than the bond market, on average. Yet, a black-box hedge fund might be less volatile than S&P500, but is it less risky?
One thing has not made sense to me.
Why does the first and likely the most important step of investing, which determines 95% of investment outcomes, is typically in the hands of Financial Advisors (including Wealth Managers and Consultants), while the second step, which barely moves the needle, belongs to Asset Managers?
In addition to market valuation ratios like CAPE, the slope of the yield curve is one of the most talked about signals used to estimate future recessions and market returns.
Alternative Title: The Gap Everywhere
There exist many flavors of market timing.
Some are obvious:
The first risk of investing is the Drawdown Risk - the loss from the peak. The second risk of investing is the Low Return Risk - the under-performance vs. expectations over a stretched period of time.
Most investors agree that the biggest decision in investing is asset allocation, but few agree on what the best asset allocation strategy is: from “Stocks for the Long-Run” and “Random Walk Down Wall Street”, to “Endowment Style” and “Risk Parity” to “Factor-Based Investing” and “Dynamic Asset Allocation”.
Why do so many investors fail to achieve the average returns that various asset allocation approaches provide over the long-run?